#221 Reproductive Agency

Fertility

Can people realize their fertility aspirations? There are still high rates of unwanted pregnancies. There are still many people who are unable to have the number of children they want.

A Five Minute Read

The UN recently published a report on “The State of the World Population 2025”. Its theme was reproductive agency. Its title “The Real Fertility Crisis”. They point out that the issue is more complex than it first appears. Discussions about fertility often do not ask the opinions of the people involved. Instead, the focus is on the needs of the country or region. The need to maintain dependency ratios or how to care for the old with fewer young people. The UN has Sustainable Development Goals. Two of them enshrine the rights of individuals to have children when they desire. (Goal 3 and Goal 5).

The UN conducted an online survey of 14,000 adults. They were men and women from 14 different countries. There countries varied in GDP per head but covered 37% of the global population. The results show there are barriers to both preventing pregnancy as well as becoming pregnant. They measured the aspirations of individuals.

How many Children?

Across the survey countries the most common number of children that people desire is two. (Individuals accept that their wishes may subsequently need to vary according to their circumstances. This could be more or less children.) In most countries there were between 5% and 7% who did not want children. The outliers were the USA and Germany. Here the percentages not wanting children was higher. In the USA this reached 18% for men and women. In Germany the number was 15% for men and 13% for women. (Sweden was still in double digits for both sexes). In “poorer” countries such as Nigeria, Morrocco and Indonesia the number was negligible.

18% of people of child bearing age, globally, believe that they would not be able to have the number of children they desire. Of that number 7% of them expect to have more children than they want. The survey included people over 50 who could look back at their reproductive lives. 31% said that that they had fewer children than they wanted and 12% reported more. The UN appears to be not meeting its strategic goals of providing agency on reproduction in either case.

A Complex Mix

The availability of modern contraception is increasing all over the world. Despite this one third of respondents said that they (or their partner) had experienced unwanted pregnancies. Conversely nearly a quarter of respondents expressed disappointment. They had not been able to conceive a child at a time they desired. Ultimately 40% of them had to forego ever having (another) child. Interestingly 13% said that they had experienced both. They had had an unwanted child and at another time had wished for a child but been unable to have one.

Barriers to Having a Child

The survey confirms many of my previous Newsletters on Fertility. There were three broad groupings of reasons. “Economic Barriers” covered financial limitations (39% of people). These included job security and the availability of affordable childcare. “Concerns for the Future” covered macro worries about political instability and climate change. It was mentioned by 19% of people. “Health Barriers” included difficulty in conceiving, pregnancy care but also general ill health. They were mentioned by 12% of respondents. Across a range of countries, the ranking of factors was very similar. In absolute terms there was variability. The economic barriers rated the highet across all countries.

Respondents accepted that they changed their mind during their lifetime. Some of their disappointment came from this. There were other important factors discussed in these Newsletters. The “availability of suitable partners” ranked highly. It was highest in Thailand at 25% and lowest in Indonesia at 4%. India scored 12% alongside Germany at 15%.” "Partnership in Child Rearing and Housework” was important. Especially to the under 40’s.

Emotional not Economic Reasons to Have Children

Economists tend to view children as an economic resource. They can help “on the farm”. They can be a substitute for a pension and take care of old parents. The survey showed that this motivation is now restricted to only a few countries.

Across all countries the most important motivation is “joy”. "The joy of supporting and guiding a child’s development". "The strengthening of family bonds that a child brings." "The joy of siblings for existing children".

Only in those countries with lower GDP per head does the economic logic appear in the top three reasons. This includes “preserving the family name and assets for future generations”. "A child provides practical or economic support”.

The Cultural Challenges

The UN is still pursuing its Sustainable Goals. I have suggested that gender equality is a precursor to an improvement in fertility. The UN says that the barriers to reducing unintended pregnancies are just as much about gender equality. When discussing all forms of coercion they cite a lawsuit brought in Texas by several state attorneys. It asserts:

that decreased births due to abortion “is a sovereign injury to the State in itself”. It further warns that medication abortion “is depressing expected birth rates for teenaged mothers”, and that “a loss of potential population” will result in “diminishment of political representation” and “loss of federal funds” (United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas, Amarillo Division, 2024)

There is growing evidence of the impact of teenage pregnancies on fertility decline. First births are being delayed. The number of teenage pregnancies around the world is in decline. Some cultural barriers at least are being overcome.

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